A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
